In brief
- Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin could run to $200,000 by March before settling around $124,000.
- The BitMex co-founder thinks the Fed’s new RMP policy is a catalyst, likening it to quantitative easing (QE).
- In this scenario, Hayes sees BTC ranging from $80,000-$100,000 to close out the year.
BitMex founder and Bitcoin billionaire Arthur Hayes says BTC will soon rise to a price of $200,000 before falling back to create a bottom above $124,000.
According to Hayes, the sharp rise in Bitcoin’s price will stem from the Fed’s “Reserve Management Purchases” or RMP, a new operating policy shared by the Fed at its most recent FOMC meeting that he likened to quantitative easing.
“RMP is a new acronym that entered my Love Language dictionary on December 10th, the day of the most recent Fed meeting,” wrote Hayes in his latest blog post from Friday.
“Immediately, I recognized it, understood its meaning, and treasured it like my long-lost love, quantitative easing (QE),” he continued. “I love QE because it means money printing, and thankfully I own financial assets like gold, gold/silver mining stocks, and Bitcoin that rise faster than the pace of fiat money creation.”
In Hayes’ view, if money printing continues to drive the adoption of Bitcoin, then it may ultimately replace the “filthy fiat fractional reserve system” one day.
The Bitcoin billionaire has previously pointed to money printing, or the Fed increasing the money supply and buying assets, as a major catalyst for the top crypto coin. Earlier this year, he predicted that Bitcoin could rise to $250,000 by year’s end as a result of money printing policies.
That hasn’t happened yet, and he no longer believes that, now instead calling for BTC to range between $80,000-$100,000 through the end of the year.
In the new year, though, he expects Bitcoin to quickly take off.
“As the market equates RMP to QE, Bitcoin will quickly retake $124,000 and punch quickly towards $200,000,” Hayes wrote. “March will mark peak expectations for the power of the RMP to ramp asset prices, and Bitcoin will decline and form a local bottom well above $124,000 as John Williams keeps his grubby fingers firmly planted on the Brrrr button.”
Williams, the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, serves as vice chair of the FOMC, the body responsible for setting monetary policy—like interest rates.
With Bitcoin’s expected rise alongside the introduction of RMP, Hayes also likes Ethena’s native token, ENA, calling it a “a TradFi vs. crypto USD rates play”
Bitcoin would need to jump 127% in the coming months to reach Hayes’ predicted mark. It recently changed hands around $88,000—30% below its all-time high mark of $126,080.
Hayes’ comments came the same day that crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin appears to have entered a bear market, based on various market factors (beyond price) that suggest significant decline since early October.
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