In brief
- Prediction market Kalshi’s valuation has hit $11 billion after reports of an undisclosed $1 billion funding round.
- Independent data show the platform hitting $50 billion in annualized volume and $4.4 billion in October trades.
- Federal rulings and state-level disputes continue to define the firm’s U.S. expansion as rivals regain domestic access.
U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi has reportedly pushed its valuation to roughly $11 billion after raising $1 billion in a yet undisclosed funding round, according to an initial report from TechCrunch citing a source with knowledge of the deal.
The rise in valuation marks one of the fastest step-ups in the prediction market sector this year.
The company closed the round weeks after securing $300 million at a $5 billion valuation in October. Trading activity, market depth, and user adoption continued to climb into this year’s final quarter.
Kalshi’s annualized trading volume reached about $50 billion last month, according to a report from crypto analytics platform CryptoRank. The figure marks a dramatic jump from roughly $300 million just a year ago, as reported by the New York Times.
It has also outpaced Polymarket, its main rival. Just last month, it generated approximately $4.4 billion in trading volume, surpassing Polymarket’s $4.1 billion during the same month.
About a third of bets on Kalshi are for sports-related markets, according to a Dune dashboard. Weekly notional volume among prediction markets have also been on a steady rise since September, according to a broader dashboard from the same maintainer.
Sequoia Capital and CapitalG reportedly led the deal, joined by Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Anthos Capital, Neo, and other returning backers.
Kalshi’s raise “just shows the ceiling is only getting higher for prediction markets, and we haven’t seen anything yet,” Farokh Sarmad, co-founder and president of rival prediction market platform Myriad, told Decrypt. (Disclosure: Myriad is owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan).
Kalshi declined to comment for this article. Decrypt has reached out to all named investors, and will update this article should any respond.
Prediction markets and regulators
Prediction markets have long faced legal friction in the U.S., given how such platforms sit between regulated derivatives and prohibited gambling—creating a jurisdictional tension that has so far shaped the industry’s growth.
Kalshi won a high-profile lawsuit last year against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, securing the right to offer election markets to U.S. users. The ruling accelerated domestic growth, but opened new fronts with state regulators who view certain types of contracts as gambling products rather than federally governed derivatives.
In May, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission moved to drop its appeal against Kalshi’s victory in a case allowing the company to offer U.S. contracts on election outcomes. Still, the company has concurrent disputes with several state regulators who argue its contracts still fall under gambling statutes rather than commodities law.
Months later, its rival Polymarket received approval from the same regulator to operate in the U.S., years after it was fined and pushed offshore over allegations that it failed to comply with the regulator’s federal policies.
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