In brief
- Crypto assets continue to slide and predictors on Myriad have flipped bearish.
- Odds for further slides to lower benchmarks for Bitcoin and Ethereum have both increased in the last week.
- At the same time, predictors think it’s less likely a December rate cut is coming from the Fed.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are now far from their respective all-time highs, sliding further on Thursday as macro uncertainty washes over all markets.
Amid falling prices, more bullish predictors have ceded positions to bears as odds rise that the leading crypto assets are more likely to “dump” rather than “pump.”
Below, we’ll look at shifts in the top markets this week, which include the next stops for BTC and ETH, and whether or not another Fed rate cut is coming this year.
(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan.)
Bitcoin’s next move: Pump to $115K or dump to $85K
Market Open: November 5
Market Close: Open until resolution
Volume: $90.2K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Bitcoin’s next move: Pump to $115K or dump to $85K?” market on Myriad
Only a few weeks ago, Bitcoin had created a new all-time high above $126,000—but the largest cryptocurrency by market cap continued reeling on Thursday, sliding now more than 30% from that high mark to below $87,000 for the first time since April.
The dip comes amid rapidly declining hopes of a December rate cut, pulling down nearly all crypto assets and traditional indices at the same time.
As a result of further falling, predictors on Myriad have become further entrenched in their bearish beliefs, now giving Bitcoin a 80% chance of hitting $85,000 sooner than it can pump to $115,000.
That marks a 34% slide towards the bearish side in the last week, as BTC has fallen around 12%—now just 2.4% away from the $85,000 mark.
With odds of a $115,000 move falling to just 22%, those brave enough to act as BTC bulls stand to gain more than 4x their money on Myriad should the asset turn around without hitting $85,000. Yet, holders of spot BTC will only gain around 31% if BTC makes the move.
What’s Next? Odds have shifted towards no Fed rate cut in December, but should a cut come, it could provide a short-term catalyst for Bitcoin, further shaking the Myriad market.
Ethereum’s next move: Pump to $4K or dump to $2.5K?
Market Open: November 5
Market Close: Open until resolution
Volume: $88.9K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Ethereum next move: Pump to $4K or dump to $2.5K” market on Myriad
Ethereum has not been spared alongside Bitcoin’s downtrend.
The second-largest crypto asset by market cap is down 10% on the week and 27% on the month, now trading below $3,000 for the first time since July.
That downtrend has led predictors on Myriad to favor ETH dumping to $2,500 sooner than it can rise to reclaim a mark of $4,000.
As of Thursday afternoon, predictors give the $2,500 dip around 70% odds of happening first. That’s despite the fact that briefly on Wednesday morning, ETH’s rise to $4,000 was still the favorite.
Overall, odds have shifted dramatically over the last week, jumping nearly 30% to favor the bearish marker.
BitMine’s Tom Lee continues to call for an ETH supercycle as his leading Ethereum treasury firm snatches up more of Ethereum’s circulating supply, but the market is not following suit.
Perhaps some of that can be attributed to the flimsiness of ETH whales, who are more likely to part with their tokens than those holding Bitcoin, according to a recent Glassnode report.
ETH must fall another 13% to hit the $2,500 mark, as it now trades at $2,825—almost 42% off its all-time high of $4,946 set in August.
What’s Next? Liquidations are piling up as pessimism takes hold once more. Like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s next move may be subject to a final yearly rate cut decision.
Exactly two Fed rate changes in 2025?
Market Open: August 31
Market Close: December 29
Volume: $43.1K
Link: See the latest odds on the “Exactly two Fed rate changes in 2025?” market on Myriad
When the Fed cut rates in October, dropping interest rates another 25 bps, markets momentarily jumped. But shortly thereafter, Bitcoin and Ethereum tumbled amid the news, particularly given Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s message that another rate cut in December was “not a foregone conclusion.”
With data blackouts hanging over important macroeconomic reports and the government still getting back to normal after the longest U.S. shutdown in history, traders are acting like there may already be a conclusion: no rate cut ahead.
Given the Fed has already changed rates lower twice, no December rate cut would resolve Myriad’s “exactly two Fed rate changes” market to “yes,” the less likely side for the better part of the market’s existence.
But in recent weeks, things have shifted completely.
Since November 1, odds of “yes,” which signals no rate cut, have doubled from 31% to 62% at the time of writing. That nearly matches a similar Myriad market, which asks specifically whether a December rate cut of 25bps is on the table—and predictors think there is a 66% chance that it won’t happen.
Thanks to the rising odds of no cut, the markets are “recalibrating,” an analyst at Bitwise told Decrypt on Monday.
The recalibration extends fully to rate cut odds markets as well, with odds of “yes” or “exactly two cuts,” jumping 43% in the last month.
What’s Next? The next FOMC meeting will be held on December 9 and 10.
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