Key takeaways
- ADA futures open interest fell to $475.58 million from $549.14 million, reflecting reduced derivatives exposure.
- Positive funding shows a modest bullish tilt among perpetual traders, leaving longs vulnerable if prices fall further.
- ADA remains below key moving averages, with $0.1894 emerging as a potential downside target.
Cardano Stabilizes After Sharp Weekly Decline
Cardano held above $0.2200 on Monday as buyers attempted to steady the price following a roughly 12% decline last week.
ADA has lost more than 10% so far in October, while weakening derivatives activity and subdued large-wallet positioning suggest limited conviction behind a recovery.
The daily chart also remains under pressure after last week’s break below trendline support near $0.2321. With the token trading beneath its key moving averages, sellers retain the near-term advantage.
CoinGlass data shows that Cardano futures open interest declined to $465.87 million on Monday from $549.14 million last week.
That represents a reduction of approximately 14.5% in the notional value of outstanding contracts.
The decline suggests reduced derivatives exposure, though it does not prove that retail traders alone are leaving the market. Falling ADA prices can reduce dollar-denominated open interest, while position closures and liquidations can also contribute.
The funding rate remained positive at 0.0032%, indicating that long positions were paying shorts in the tracked perpetual market.
That modest positive reading suggests some traders are still positioned for a rebound. However, funding alone does not demonstrate excessive leverage.
A further price decline could nevertheless put vulnerable long positions under pressure and trigger additional forced selling.
Onchain figures suggest large holders have made only modest adjustments to their exposure.
According to Santiment data, wallets holding more than 100 million ADA accounted for 15.99% of circulating supply, slightly higher than 15.95% last week.
Meanwhile, the cohort holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA represented 38.11% of supply, down from 38.27%.
The opposing movements provide a mixed picture rather than a clear accumulation trend. They also do not, by themselves, establish whether tokens were sold, transferred between wallets or moved across holding categories.
Combined with lower futures exposure, the figures offer limited evidence of renewed buying conviction.
Cardano’s technical outlook remains bearish
ADA continues to trade beneath its 50-day Exponential Moving Average near $0.2290 and its 200-day EMA around $0.2395.
The loss of trendline support near $0.2321 adds to the weak structure, leaving several barriers above the current price.
Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains below zero with a negative histogram, while the Relative Strength Index hovers around 41.
The RSI reading suggests sellers retain the upper hand, although ADA has not reached the conventional oversold threshold of 30.
Without a recovery through nearby resistance, the latest stabilization remains a pause within the correction rather than confirmation of a trend reversal.
The psychological $0.20 level is an immediate downside reference if selling resumes. Below it, the August 30 low near $0.1894 represents the next structural support.
A move toward that level would be about 14%–15% downside from the current price area.
On the upside, buyers first need to challenge the 50-day EMA at $0.2290. The former trendline support near $0.2321 then presents another obstacle, followed by the 200-day EMA at $0.2395.
A sustained recovery through those levels would help weaken the bearish setup. Until then, Cardano remains exposed to further losses as traders assess whether demand can strengthen around $0.2200.
