In brief
- The profit/loss margin for recent Bitcoin buyers hit -25%, a level that has marked local bottoms four times since the 2023 bull run.
- Long-term holders have distributed 1.78 million BTC since July, while short-term holders have accumulated a nearly identical 1.8 million BTC.
- This shift in cohort behavior is a normal late-cycle wealth transfer, not a structural top, which increases near-term price fragility, Decrypt was told.
Bitcoin’s Monday drop to $85,800 shows both new large investors and long-term holders are driving the selloff that has pressured prices for months.
Unrealized losses for entities that have accumulated more than 1,000 BTC over the past 155 days have reached levels not seen since 2023. Old whales, who have held large stakes for longer, remain in profit.
The profit/loss margin for wallets that bought Bitcoin over the past three months, meanwhile, has hit -25%, according to data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. Drops within the -12% to -37% range have historically served as markers of a bull run reversal.
“New whales going underwater don’t automatically imply forced selling. Capitulation risk rises if Bitcoin loses key cost-basis levels for recent buyers, especially around ETF or institutional entry zones,” Shivam Thakral, CEO of Indian crypto exchange BuyUCoin, told Decrypt.
A sharp macroeconomic shock would be the most likely catalyst for defensive selling, he added.
The sell-side pressure, however, is not uniform across all investor cohorts. A clear divergence exists between long-term and short-term holders.
The 30-day net position change for short-term holders—investors who typically hold assets for less than six months—has reached +768,000 BTC as of Monday, in a sign of accumulation.
Conversely, the same metric shows long-term holders have a net position change of -755,000 BTC, signaling distribution.
Since July 2025, the supply held by long-term holders has declined by approximately 1.78 million BTC to 13.68 million BTC.
Contrary to the assumption that newer investors are selling en masse, the supply held by short-term holders has increased by roughly 1.8 million BTC to 6.28 million BTC in the same period.
“The shift from long-term to short-term holders is a normal feature of late-cycle bull markets, reflecting profit-taking and capital rotation rather than outright stress,” Thakral said. “Unlike prior cycles, demand today is broader and more institutional, with ETFs and corporate balance sheets absorbing supply.”
“This looks less like a structural top and more like a classic wealth transfer phase,” he added.
While this rotation increases near-term price fragility, it often sets the base for consolidation before the next leg higher, the analyst noted.
The top crypto is down nearly 4% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
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