In brief
- A new price model from analysts at CF Benchmarks suggests a Bitcoin base case of $1.4 million by 2035.
- The model gives a bear case of $637,000, and bull case of $2.95 million.
- BTC would need to jump more than 1,500% to hit the base case.
A new Bitcoin price model suggests the base case for the leading cryptocurrency in 2035 is a price of $1.42 million per coin—a more than 1,500% surge from its recent trading price—or potentially more than twice that mark.
The probability-weighted model from analysts Gabriel Selby and Mark Pilipczuk at Kraken-owned company CF Benchmarks implies that Bitcoin would grab around 33% of gold’s market capitalization, delivering an expected annualized return of 30.1%.
“As institutional participation deepens, volatility is likely to continue compressing, while Bitcoin’s exposure to monetary debasement supports persistently low correlations to most major asset classes, enhancing portfolio diversification,” the report reads.
It adds that improved regulatory clarity, institutional acceptance and deepening liquidity will increase the investability of the asset.
While the base case forecasts a more than 1,500% gain over the next decade, the analyst’s bull case for 2035 suggests the price of BTC could reach as high as $2.95 million per coin.
In that scenario, the pair see Bitcoin as the dominant global store of value on account of institutional and sovereign adoption. The bear case keeps the asset in its historical trendline with just 16% of gold’s market capitalization—suggesting a target of $637,000 by 2035.
While the targets may seem lofty, other Bitcoin bulls have projected similar numbers for the not-so-distant future.
Notable tech investor Cathie Wood sees BTC hitting $1.2 million by 2030, though that target is down 20% from her previous $1.5 million prediction on account of rapid stablecoin adoption. Wood’s firm, Ark Invest, saw a path to $2.4 million by 2030 in a “Big Ideas” report from earlier this year.
Michael Saylor recently predicted that Bitcoin will hit $1 million per coin in the next “four to eight years.” On a longer time horizon, the Strategy chairman believes the price will head towards $20 million per coin based on 30% annual gains for the next 20 years.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has called for multi-million dollar Bitcoin, as well.
For now, though, the target remains well out of sight. Bitcoin is changing hands around $87,133 on Friday, down more than 3% over the last week.
The top crypto asset is about 31% off its October all-time high mark of $126,080, and would need to jump more than 1,000% to reach $1 million per BTC.
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