In brief
- A key spot market metric has spiked to its second-highest level this year, signaling a potential bottom.
- Options traders are hedging for more downside, loading up on puts in the $85,000 to $80,000 range.
- Bitcoin may see a potential bull trap below $80,000 before a year-end recovery, Decrypt was told.
Bitcoin has notched its fourth consecutive weekly loss, marking its longest downtrend since June 2024, even as it begins clawing back last week’s losses.
Price action for the world’s largest digital asset is on track for its fourth-quarter performance to be its worst since 2018, with a current loss of 24.43%.
“I expect a rough ride into Christmas,” Sean Dawson, head of research at options analytics platform Derive, told Decrypt.
Despite the gloom, one on-chain metric suggests underlying demand.
The aggregate spot bid-ask delta at 10% depth has spiked to the second-highest level in 2025, indicating increased dip-buying activity and potential absorption of selling pressure.
The last time this indicator spiked after a sustained downtrend in March and April, it helped form a bottom that catalyzed a 64% bull run.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $87,400, up roughly 6% since the November 21 low of $82,100 and roughly 1.8% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
The recovery aligns with a sharp repricing of Federal Reserve policy, as the odds of a December rate cut have jumped from 40% last week to nearly 70% today.
However, Dawson remains skeptical of the rebound. “Pessimism has peaked, but I’d be cautious of walking into a bull trap,” he said.
He points to ongoing market pressures, noting that most digital asset treasuries are trading below their net asset value, hindering their ability to accumulate. The same can be seen with spot Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds down in the red.
Despite the jump in rate-cut odds, “fears of sticky inflation” would mean “a slower transition into quantitative easing than previously expected, worrying traders,” the analyst added.
What’s next?
While Dawson is optimistic for a recovery to $100,000 by the first quarter of 2026, he remains bearish for the rest of 2025.
He cites a negative skew in the options market, with “traders loading up on puts to protect downside,” particularly for the December 2025 expiry, which is seeing a “large build-up of puts in the $80,000 to $85,000 range.”
“I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin briefly slipped into the mid to high $70,000 range before recovering to roughly $90,000 by the end of the year, if the Fed doesn’t strike a hawkish tone,” he said.
While sentiment remains in “extreme fear” territory, the outlook has improved slightly following the weekend bounce.
The Fed’s policy decisions, including the end of quantitative tightening on December 1 and its interest rate decision slated for December 10, could prove pivotal in setting the tone for Bitcoin and the broader financial markets in the coming weeks.
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