In brief
- Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick recommends buying Bitcoin in three 25%-25%-50% stages as it recovers from dipping below $100,000.
- The Bitcoin-gold ratio has fallen to 25 from its January peak of 38.6, with gold up 66.5% this year versus Bitcoin’s 10.5% gain.
- Analysts attribute recent crypto weakness to the record-long U.S. government shutdown draining institutional liquidity, but expect a strong rally when it ends.
As Bitcoin recovers from its slip below $100,000, an analyst recommended BTC traders “buy the dip, in stages.”
To do that, Standard Chartered Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick said traders should figure out what the max is they can invest in Bitcoin and then follow these three steps.
First, they should buy 25% of max limit now, adding “the dip below 100K overnight well may be the last one ever.” Then he said they should buy 25% more of max if the Friday ‘close’ is above $103,000.
Lastly, Kendrick said traders should buy the other 50% of max “if/when the Bitcoin-gold ratio goes back above 30.”
The Bitcoin-gold ratio has fallen to 25. It peaked for the year at 38.6 on January 5, 2025 and was close to reclaiming that high point again in August, when it hit 36.5. But the ratio has been steadily falling since August 12 as gold prices have soared.
In the past month, gold has at times begun to decline and positioned Bitcoin for a more favorable comparison. But the recent price volatility has cast doubts on BTC catching up to the precious metal.
Users on Myriad have grown increasingly certain that gold will outperform Bitcoin this year. At the time of writing, users estimated that there’s an 82% chance gold will come out on top. Since the start of the year, gold has gained a staggering 66.5%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s latest plunge has left it trading 10.5% higher than it was January 1.
Analysts told Decrypt on Tuesday that the U.S. government shutdown, which has now become the longest on record, has been siphoning cash away from institutions that might otherwise deploy it through lending, equities, or cryptocurrencies.
But when the shutdown does finally end and the Treasury begins spending cash again, the recovery should be swift, BitMEX analysts said.
“This massive liquidity ‘snap-back’ should trigger a strong relief rally, aligning perfectly with Bitcoin’s historical end-of-year seasonal strength,” they said.
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