In brief
- An account bearing George Cottrell’s name appeared to lose $550k on an Iran strike bet.
- An additional $125k loss was tied to a wager on Keir Starmer leaving office.
- Polymarket is not licensed to operate in the UK.
An account on the prediction market Polymarket that appears to bear the name and birth year of British financier and Nigel Farage confidant George Cottrell lost more than $550,000 on bets about whether the U.S. would bomb Iran.
The “GCottrell93” account wagered roughly $550,000 on the outcome “No” to the question “US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” according to Polymarket data first cited by UK newspaper The Daily Telegraph. The position was wiped out after the United States struck Iran on February 28. Prior to this, the account won multiple bets against the strikes before other dates in February.
The same account also appears to have lost around $125,000 on a bet that Prime Minister Keir Starmer would be out of office by February 28. It has garnered almost $3.5 million in profits, the bulk of that coming from a bet on Trump winning the 2024 election.
Blockchain investigator ZachXBT has previously expressed “high confidence” that the account belongs to Cottrell, a longtime associate of Reform UK leader Farage who has helped raise millions of pounds for his political movements, including Ukip and the Brexit Party. In 2025 his mother, aristocrat Fiona Cottrell, emerged as one of Reform UK’s largest donors.
Cottrell has a long history with high‑stakes betting and finance. Court filings in the UK previously named him as part of a professional betting syndicate linked to Brighton and Hove Albion owner Tony Bloom. The syndicate, tied to the analytics firm Starlizard, reportedly generated hundreds of millions of dollars in winnings, with Cottrell said to have earned substantial sums by copying its bets.
Cottrell was arrested in 2016 while attending the Republican National Convention in Chicago alongside Farage. U.S. prosecutors charged him with conspiracy to commit money laundering, wire fraud, blackmail and extortion after meetings with undercover federal agents in Las Vegas. Following a plea agreement, he pleaded guilty to a single count of wire fraud and served eight months in prison.
Last month, he published a book entitled “How To Launder Money: A guide for law enforcement, prosecutors and policymakers,” whose launch was attended by Farage and senior Reform UK figures.
In a statement emailed to Decrypt, a Reform UK spokesperson said that “George Cottrell is not employed by the party so you are best approaching him for comment.” Decrypt has attempted to contact Cottrell via his company, Geostrategy.
Reform UK and crypto
Reform UK has taken an explicitly pro‑cryptocurrency stance and became the first major British political party to accept crypto donations in June 2025. The policy has drawn criticism from lawmakers and transparency campaigners who warn that cryptocurrency donations could enable money laundering or foreign interference in British elections.
This week former Labour minister Rushanara Ali called for a ban on crypto political donations, describing them as a potential vector for “foreign interference in our democracy.” Seven parliamentary committee chairs also wrote to the prime minister earlier this year urging an explicit prohibition on cryptocurrency donations.
Campaign groups have raised similar concerns. The UK Anti‑Corruption Coalition and Spotlight on Corruption argue that the Electoral Commission lacks the powers necessary to properly monitor the origin of crypto donations.
Despite publicly saying it accepts it, donating online to Reform UK using crypto doesn’t seem to work. Decrypt tried to access the party’s crypto donations page online on multiple browsers and was directed to a blank page each time.
Prediction markets under scrutiny
Cottrell’s bets also come at a time of increased scrutiny of prediction markets. Polymarket is not licensed to operate in the UK and limits services to UK-based users. The Gambling Commission told Decrypt it “does not comment on individual businesses” but pointed to its register of licensed operators, which does not include Polymarket.
In guidance published last month, the regulator said prediction market platforms would likely fall under the legal definition of a “betting intermediary” in the UK, similar to a betting exchange, and would require the appropriate gambling licence to operate legally.
Despite arguments by some platforms that prediction markets are distinct from gambling, regulators around the world have taken an increasingly hard line. Companies in the sector face legal or regulatory challenges in numerous jurisdictions including France, Germany, Italy, Australia, Singapore, Portugal, Hungary, Thailand and the Netherlands.
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