In brief
- Circle shares rose another 15% Monday, extending gains to roughly 60% since last week’s Q4 earnings.
- Analysts point to short covering, accelerating USDC growth, and regulatory clarity under the GENIUS Act.
- The rally comes as Bitcoin steadies near $68,000 amid the rising U.S.–Iran tensions.
Stablecoin issuer Circle’s shares jumped another 15% Monday, extending gains to roughly 60% since last week’s fourth-quarter earnings release, as investors poured into stablecoin-linked equities while broader crypto markets held firm.
The move follows the company’s announcement of 72% growth in its stablecoin USDC to $75.3 billion and 77% revenue growth to $770 million, despite a net loss tied to IPO-related compensation in the fourth quarter.
CRCL is trading at $96, marking a 71% advance in its stock in just over a month, according to Google Finance data. It’s still down by more than 10% since its debut on the New York Stock Exchange back in June of last year.
It comes as broader crypto markets digest geopolitical and regulatory crosscurrents, with Bitcoin hovering near $68,372, after recovering from a brief selloff triggered by a U.S.-led strike on Iran, per CoinGecko data.
President Donald Trump said Monday on X the U.S. had launched “Operation Epic Fury,” calling it “one of the largest, most complex, most overwhelming military offensives the world has ever seen.”
On Myriad, a prediction market owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users now see a 51% likelihood of a U.S.–Iran ceasefire happening before April 1.
Oil and gold have risen on supply concerns, and for equity investors, attention has shifted to stablecoin fundamentals, positioning, and regulation.
“Demand for stablecoins as well as the medium-to-long-term positive forecasts have made CRCL and stablecoin projects in general the real flavour of the month,” Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, told Decrypt.
“Regulatory momentum (Genius Act) as well as the obvious product market fit have made CRCL a relatively stable and reliable place to invest as the digital asset market has languished over the last several months,” he said.
Last week, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency released a proposal detailing how it intends to implement the stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act, which Trump signed into law last summer.
The proposal would restrict certain stablecoin rewards programs, and multiple crypto policy leaders told Decrypt it could affect Coinbase’s USDC rewards structure, though the rule remains subject to a 60-day public comment period and is not final.
At the same time, some analysts say the rally points to a shift in how investors view Circle, not as a token proxy, but as a payments infrastructure tied to artificial intelligence.
“We’ve started a new era in the AI story,” Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Australian crypto exchange Swyftx, told Decrypt. “Investors are starting to pick winners and losers, and, rightly or wrongly, Circle is seen as a big winner in the AI narrative.”
“USDC isn’t a crypto bet anymore, it’s a payments infrastructure and agentics bet,” he added.
He described a future where AI agents transact autonomously on behalf of users and businesses, “naturally route around high fees” and select the “cheapest settlement rails available,” with stablecoins already “positioned for that role.”
On an earnings call last week, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire tied the company’s future to artificial intelligence, saying it will “drive the greatest acceleration of economic activity we’ve ever seen in human history.”
USDC’s year-to-date supply growth of +0.1% has outpaced Tether’s stablecoin USDT’s -2%, driven partly by increased usage on Polymarket, Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Labs, told Decrypt, highlighting “the importance of tying up with the right distribution channel.”
He noted that if the pending CLARITY Act ultimately forbids distributors from revenue sharing, “it could ironically benefit Circle by shielding its revenue base from competitive pressure.”
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