In brief
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $227.9 million on March 5, the largest single-day exit since February 12.
- Glassnode’s 14-day netflow trend has turned higher, signaling easing distribution pressure.
- Experts are split on the short-term outlook, but remain confident about institutional re-accumulation signs and longer-term forecasts.
Bitcoin ETFs logged their worst day in three weeks on March 5, shedding $227.9 million in outflows. A closer look under the surface shows longer-term flow trends are stabilizing, with experts debating whether institutions are quietly positioning for the next leg up.
Thursday’s outflows marked the largest single-day exit since February 12’s $410 million bleed, according to Farside Investors data.
After a sustained uptrend this week, Bitcoin has pulled back to under $70,000, dipping by 4.3% in the past 24 hours and retreating from its March 5 high of $72,993, according to CoinGecko data.
Despite the leading crypto’s retracement and ETF outflows, the 14-day Bitcoin spot ETF netflow trend, which smooths out daily volatility, has turned higher, according to a Thursday Telegram post by crypto analytics firm Glassnode.
The 30-day ETF position change has stabilized around 23,943 after improving from -35,000 on February 1, signaling “easing distribution pressure,” Glassnode analysts noted.
Institutional re-accumulation
The divergence between short-term pain and improving medium-term signals tests whether ETF flows remain the primary driver of price, or if other forces like on-chain accumulation and geopolitical hedging are gaining influence.
Multi-day signals should be trusted over single-day blips, Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue, told Decrypt. “The shift from deeply negative to mildly positive and stabilizing territory signals early institutional re-accumulation, with outflows decelerating sharply and recent multi-day inflows supporting renewed demand rather than a mere pause.”
Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, echoed with Adziima.
“Single-day outflows might be worth looking at but rarely tell the whole story,” d’Anethan told Decrypt, explaining that the weekly outflow trend has slowed down and “potentially reversed,” suggesting that mid-$60,000 “might have been a decent entry point,” at least for now.
The 30-day ETF position suggests “early signs of institutional re-accumulation rather than merely a temporary pause,” Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Decrypt. That uptick in the metric reflects growing long-term conviction among larger players as broader market conditions improve, he said.
Ruck tempered his outlook, adding that “the market outlook isn’t fully revealed by ETFs alone.” Other key factors, such as on-chain activity, geopolitical hedging demand, and broader institutional positioning, are also playing larger roles, he said.
Other experts had a similar opinion, suggesting that macro headlines continue to influence crypto prices in the near term.
From a long-term perspective, however, analysts said that $60,000 is a good starting point for accumulation.
“It’s a long game with Bitcoin,” Aleksandr Nechaev, partner at venture capital fund Funders VC, told Decrypt, suggesting that investors should set aside capital for “averaging down,” should the markets slide lower.
Users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, are almost evenly split on whether Bitcoin’s next major move will take it to either $84,000 or $55,000.
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