In brief
- DAT stocks have crashed 50-90% from their peaks, compressing their valuations below their crypto holdings’ value.
- Experts see a divide, with Bitcoin-focused treasuries potentially oversold while multi-asset DATs face greater risk.
- A recovery is tied to a Bitcoin rebound, hinging on key macro catalysts like softer inflation and Fed rate cuts.
Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) stocks are facing a severe test, with some plunging more than 50% from their 2025 peaks and now trading near the value of their underlying crypto holdings.
The dramatic sell-off poses a critical question for investors: is this a justified collapse or a severe overreaction creating a potential opportunity?
Data reveal a stark picture. While Bitcoin is down roughly 20% from its 2025 all-time high, per CoinGecko data, DAT stocks have fallen more swiftly.
Strategy’s stock is down 50% from its July peak, while Metaplanet and SharpLink have plummeted nearly 80% and 90%, respectively. As a result, their market valuations have compressed, pushing market-net-asset-value or mNAV close to or below 1, according to StrategyTracker.
Typically, when mNAV falls below or approaches one, it makes it harder for companies to raise cash by offering up their stocks, experts previously told Decrypt.
“When DAT stocks trade below the value of their crypto holdings, it means the market is no longer rewarding them for outsized accumulation in the same way it once did,” Yaroslav Patsira, Fractional Director at CEX.IO, told Decrypt. “This doesn’t make them dead, but they are under real pressure, as trading below their holdings could force them to sell some of their holdings to cover costs.”
This new context helps differentiate between the various DATs.
“For the stronger Bitcoin names, this looks more oversold than finished,” Fakhul Miah, Managing Director of Gomining Institutional, told Decrypt. He explained that “Bitcoin-focused treasuries with cleaner balance sheets are holding up better than multi-asset DATs, many of which chase higher-risk tokens.”
Are DATs dead?
A longer-term view, however, reveals a more nuanced story.
Despite the recent selloff, Galaxy Digital’s year-to-date performance remains up a staggering 73.4%, and SharpLink is up 43.2%, vastly outperforming Bitcoin’s 8.6% gain—suggesting that the recent slump could be a sharp correction within a longer-term bullish trend, not its end.
The divergence highlights the high-risk, high-reward nature of these stocks, especially considering that DATs are high-beta proxies for crypto exposure.
“This cycle will likely be more selective with investors rewarding disciplined Bitcoin treasuries with transparent issuance, while multi-asset treasuries with fragmented exposure may lag, even if the market turns risk-on,” Miah added.
“When digital assets underperform, DATs fall harder. That’s expected,” Patsira noted.
The key differentiator may be scale and strategy.
Strategy, with its 641,692 BTC stack and proven track record of not selling, represents a pure, long-term Bitcoin proxy. Its current -25% YTD performance, while negative, is less severe than its peers’, especially given that the company is sitting on over $18 billion in unrealized gains. On prediction market Myriad, launched by Decrypt‘s parent company Dastan, users place a less than 7% chance on the firm selling any of its BTC by the end of the year.
Despite the criticism, the critical factor for a recovery of DAT stocks hinges on a Bitcoin rebound.
Miah emphasized that “the return of delayed U.S. data after the shutdown is key,” noting that “if inflation comes in softer and the Fed leans more clearly toward cuts in December, that would ease the pressure on crypto.”
“DATs will likely follow suit if Bitcoin reestablishes bullish momentum,” Patsira said, echoing Miah’s outlook and noting that potential hints of a December rate cut from the Fed, coupled with updated U.S. labor market and inflation data, could be catalysts for a Bitcoin recovery.
Investor sentiment has improved today due to the end of the U.S. government’s 43-day shutdown, with Myriad users assigning a 61% chance of Bitcoin hitting $115,000, up from 53.4% today.
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