Bernstein analysts reiterated a bullish long-term outlook for bitcoin, calling the current bitcoin price downturn the “weakest bear case” in the asset’s history and maintaining a $150,000 price target by the end of 2026.
The research and brokerage firm argued that the recent drawdown reflects a crisis of confidence rather than structural damage to bitcoin’s network or investment thesis.
“What we are experiencing is the weakest bitcoin bear case in its history,” the analysts wrote, adding that none of the typical catalysts behind past crypto winters have emerged.
Bernstein said previous bear markets were driven by major failures, hidden leverage, or systemic breakdowns. This cycle, the firm sees no comparable blowups or widespread insolvencies.
Instead, analysts pointed to growing institutional alignment as a key difference. They cited support from a pro-bitcoin U.S. political environment, expanding adoption of spot BTC ETFs, rising corporate treasury participation, and continued involvement from large asset managers.
The firm argued that bitcoin’s broader adoption story remains intact despite market weakness.
Bernstein also addressed criticism that bitcoin has lagged gold during the latest period of macro volatility. They said BTC continues to trade primarily as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a mature safe haven.
They noted that elevated interest rates and tighter financial conditions have concentrated gains in select areas such as precious metals and AI-linked equities.
Bernstein said BTC ETF infrastructure and corporate capital-raising channels remain positioned to absorb renewed liquidity if conditions ease.
Reporting from The Block helped with the coverage of this analysis.
Bernstein stays bullish on bitcoin; quantum fears dismissed.
The analysts also pushed back against claims that BTC is losing relevance in an economy shaped by artificial intelligence.
They argued that blockchains and programmable wallets could play a central role in an emerging “agentic” digital environment, where autonomous software agents require global, machine-readable financial rails. Traditional banking systems, they said, remain constrained by closed APIs and legacy integration barriers.
On quantum computing, Bernstein acknowledged that future cryptographic threats warrant preparation but said BTC is not uniquely exposed.
The firm argued that all critical digital systems face similar risks and will transition toward quantum-resistant standards together.
These thoughts echo that of Strategy, on Strategy’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said the company will launch a Bitcoin Security Program aimed at coordinating with the broader cyber and crypto community.
The message echoed Strategy’s view that quantum computing is not an immediate threat, but a future engineering challenge that the network will have time to address.
Saylor framed quantum fears as the latest version of “FUD,” arguing that many major industries still rely on the same cryptographic foundations BTC uses today. He pointed to ongoing global investment in quantum-resistant research and said the Bitcoin ecosystem is already exploring upgrades that could strengthen the protocol if needed.
He emphasized that any major change would require broad global consensus, consistent with Bitcoin’s history of adapting through technical and regulatory pressure.
Bernstein added that BTC’s transparent codebase and the growing involvement of well-capitalized stakeholders position it to adapt alongside other financial and governmental systems.
Bernstein also dismissed concerns about leveraged corporate bitcoin accumulation and the risk of miner capitulation.
The analysts said major bitcoin-holding firms have structured liabilities to withstand prolonged downturns.
They pointed to comments from Strategy executives that only an extreme scenario — BTC falling to $8,000 and remaining there for five years — would require balance sheet restructuring.
Bernstein maintained that the selloff represents sentiment weakness rather than systemic failure, and reiterated its forecast for bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading slightly below $70,000.
