In brief
- Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi correctly called nearly every major U.S. election result Tuesday.
- One standout wager, however, gave just 1.1% odds on election day that New Jersey Democrat Mikie Sherrill would win her governor race by 12–15%.
- The bet would have given a nearly 100x payout just hours before election results came in. Some Polymarket users made tens of thousands of dollars.
Though last night’s U.S. election results proved surprising to many political pundits—given the extent and scale of Democrats’ victories across the country—prediction markets proclaimed they’d known the outcome for months.
Indeed, prediction markets including Polymarket and Kalshi correctly called the New York City mayor’s race, plus governor races in both New Jersey and Virginia, by overwhelming margins. Further, those margins had been established for months in all three races—leaving relatively few opportunities to make a lucrative bet on election night.
But one exception stands out. Yesterday, on election morning, Polymarket bettors were convinced that New Jersey Democrat Mikie Sherrill would defeat her Republican opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, by a relatively small percentage of votes. A $2.7 million market on Sherrill’s expected margin of victory had her odds of winning by 12-15% at a miniscule 1.1% likelihood.
And just hours later, that’s exactly what happened. Sherrill ultimately trounced her opposition by 13.1%, in one of the most impressive showings on Democrats’ big night.
The bet proved to be one of the most lucrative wagers on an election night that prediction market users, for the large part, saw coming. A $100 bet on the Sherrill market at the right moment yesterday—9:00 am ET, to be precise—would have yielded a nearly $10,000 return.
Did anyone catch it at the right time? Almost, but not quite. One Polymarket user bought the right victory margin at 10 cents—but also chose to go all on in the wager. Their $12,960 position is now poised to pay out over $123,000.
Another user, who scooped up $9,891 worth of the correct position at 11 cents, ultimately made over $86,000.
While prediction markets have proudly marketed their platforms as superior to traditional forms of data collection—last night, Polymarket proclaimed “polls are dead”—bettors may have done well in this case to heed old-school signals. The final poll in the New Jersey governor’s race, released yesterday morning, had Sherrill up by 12.
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