In brief
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have reduced holdings by about 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025, reversing the accumulation seen a year earlier.
- Large Bitcoin holders and derivatives markets showed weaker demand patterns similar to those seen ahead of past downturns.
- Bitcoin fell below its 365-day moving average, a level CryptoQuant said historically separated bull and bear markets.
Bitcoin demand weakened in recent months as ETF holdings fell, large investors accumulated more slowly, and derivatives indicators declined, according to data by CryptoQuant.
In a report released Friday, the analytics firm said Bitcoin demand fell below its long-term trend in early October, a shift it said historically signaled a bear market.
“Since 2023, Bitcoin has experienced three-spot demand waves, driven by the U.S. spot ETF launch in January 2024, the Trump presidential election win, and the Bitcoin treasury companies’ bubble,” the report said. “However, the demand growth entered a slowdown period since early October and is now growing below trend. As such, we believe most of this cycle’s demand growth has passed, with the corresponding bearish effect on price.”
The report comes as Bitcoin continues to trade just over the $88,000 mark, down 30% from its all-time high above $126,000 set in early October.
According to CryptoQuant, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs became net sellers during the fourth quarter of 2025, with combined holdings declining by about 24,000 BTC, or around $2.12 billion. The report contrasted that activity with the fourth quarter of 2024, when ETF holdings rose sharply over the same period.
The report also showed weaker growth among addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. CryptoQuant said this group—which includes ETFs and corporate treasury accounts—was growing below trend.
“This cohort, which includes ETFs and treasury companies, represented most of Bitcoin’s demand growth this cycle,” CryptoQuant wrote. “This weakening mirrors a demand trend shift at the end of 2021, which preceded the 2022 Bitcoin bear market.”
Bitcoin’s price action has also changed. The report said Bitcoin crossed below its 365-day moving average, a level CryptoQuant described as a long-term technical threshold that historically separated bull and bear markets.
In past cycles, the firm said, downturns followed periods when demand growth peaked and declined. CryptoQuant pointed to Bitcoin’s realized price as a historical reference point for bear-market lows.
The firm sees a potential cycle low of $56,000 ahead, which would represent a 55% drop from the all-time high mark and a further 36% slide from the current price of Bitcoin. However, it sees “intermediate price support” around the $70,000 level.
CryptoQuant’s report comes following months of declines for Bitcoin and other top assets, following a record $19 billion liquidation event in October. Some analysts have retained bullish views for Bitcoin going into 2026, even suggesting that the traditional four-year price cycle should be considered a relic of the past—though CryptoQuant and others continue to project further losses ahead.
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