In brief
- So-called “accumulator” whales bought 75,000 BTC from December 1 to 10 as short-term holder losses mount, signaling wealth transfer to strong hands.
- The Fed’s new liquidity program offers technical support but isn’t designed to fuel the excess liquidity crypto needs for a major rally.
- Experts predict a “low-liquidity run-up” heading into the holidays rather than an explosive surge.
Bullish Bitcoin wallets continue to buy up the digital asset, even as unrealized losses mount and liquidity remains sparse throughout the sector.
Large holders—dubbed accumulator wallets—purchased 75,000 BTC between December 1 and December 10, including 40,000 BTC in a single day, CryptoQuant analyst DarkFrost wrote in a Thursday tweet.
Strict on-chain criteria define the wallets as having no history of selling, meeting a high purchase threshold, showing multiple inflows, and not being linked to exchanges, miners, or smart contracts.
While the persistent accumulation is supportive, it is also occurring against a backdrop of significant market stress.
“Short-term holder losses continue piling up; they’re 20-30% underwater,” Derek Lim, head of research at crypto market-making firm Caladan, told Decrypt. “Historically, this tends to be bullish when long-term holders are accumulating because it shows wealth transfer happening.”
It extends well beyond short-term holders as unrealized losses across the crypto ecosystem have climbed to roughly $350 billion, according to Glassnode. Unrealized losses on Bitcoin holdings contributed almost $85 billion to that figure.
“With multiple on-chain indicators signalling shrinking liquidity across the board, the market is likely entering a high-volatility regime in the weeks ahead,” according to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode’s Thursday tweet.
The question is whether the Fed’s rate cut and its new $40 billion monthly Treasury bill purchase program can catalyze a sustained uptrend amid the liquidity crunch.
While the answer wasn’t a resounding yes, experts who spoke to Decrypt took a cautiously optimistic stance.
“The $40 billion monthly T-bill program provides technical support,” Lim noted. However, he clarified that the Fed’s intention was “to keep banking plumbing from seizing up, not to generate the excess liquidity crypto actually needs for genuine momentum.”
“The liquidity bottleneck through holidays is also a real thing,” he added, citing thin order books, year-end tax-loss harvesting, and the Fed’s measured approach as factors arguing against an “explosive illiquid run-up right now.”
Other analysts see the macro shift gradually overpowering near-term headwinds.
“The market will increasingly reflect the impact of a looser monetary environment,” Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Research, told Decrypt. “My bet is on a low-liquidity run-up,” he added, predicting “more buying interest than selling pressure” due to the cumulative rate cuts in 2025 and the Fed’s new liquidity program.
Ryan Yoon, Senior Research Analyst at Tiger Research, offered a similar tempered outlook.
“In the short term, Bitcoin is unlikely to touch the active investor cost basis of $89,000,” Yoon told Decrypt, noting that while Bitcoin has historically weakened immediately after rate cuts, it tends to rally as economic momentum recovers.
Bitcoin is up 2.4% over 24 hours and is currently trading at $92,250, according to CoinGecko data.
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