In brief
- Gemini filed to launch a federally regulated event market under the name “Gemini Titan.”
- Prediction markets have hit a new all-time high for volume last month.
- The company lost $282M in H1 2025, while shares are down nearly 50% since its IPO.
The parent company of the Gemini crypto exchange is preparing to enter the prediction market business to generate new revenue streams and offset financial headwinds.
Gemini Space Station Inc. filed for approval with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to launch a derivatives exchange in May, registering an entity called “Gemini Titan” for the operation of a “designated contract market,” according to thirteen public documents on the CFTC website.
Gemini had been in discussion to launch products related to the registration as soon as possible, Bloomberg reported Tuesday. The exchange reportedly aims to offer services directly rather than through third-party partnerships.
The move would put it in competition with Kalshi, the only other active CFTC-regulated event market, and Polymarket, poised to reopen in the U.S.
It comes as prediction markets have surged in activity, with weekly trading volume hitting an all-time high of $2 billion in the final week of October.
But Gemini’s foray into prediction markets isn’t new.
In August 2024, the Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss-owned company submitted a comment letter to the CFTC in response to its proposed rule on event contracts.
Gemini argued the rule exceeded the CFTC’s statutory authority and warned that its blanket prohibition of “event contracts involving gaming” would hamper prediction markets.
Were Gemini to list event contracts in the U.S., it would likely need to operate through a Designated Contract Market regulated by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act.
The designation requires the exchange to comply with 23 core principles covering areas such as market surveillance, financial integrity, governance standards, and system safeguards to ensure fair and orderly markets.
Gemini’s foray into prediction markets comes as the exchange’s operator struggles with shrinking revenue, heavy net losses, and waning retail engagement following its September public debut.
Shares have fallen roughly 49% since the company’s mid-September IPO, closing at $16.29 on Tuesday, per Google Finance data. The stock opened at $32 on its first trading day after pricing at $28 per share, but has lost roughly half its value since then.
While the company has “proved their model enough to IPO,” it appears that it still needs “a breakout business” of its own, Ryan Yoon, senior analyst at Tiger Research, told Decrypt.
The company posted a $282 million net loss in the first six months of 2025, nearly double its $158 million deficit for all of 2024. Revenue fell to $68.6 million in the first half of 2025 from $74.3 million in the year-earlier period, according to an August SEC filing.
More than 80% of Gemini’s trading volume now comes from institutional clients rather than retail users, limiting potential growth in a market where competitors like Coinbase and Robinhood have a stronger retail presence.
Decrypt has reached out to Gemini for further comment.
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