In brief
- 80% of Solana’s circulating supply is held at a loss, raising the risk of a panic-selling cascade.
- A drop below $124.40 could liquidate $239 million in SOL long positions.
- Despite the pressure, spot Solana ETFs have attracted $719M in inflows since launch, with no outflows.
Solana, like other major altcoins, continues to buckle under pressure due to the sustained crypto market selloff.
Nearly 80% of Solana’s circulating supply is now in loss, according to a Sunday tweet from on-chain market intelligence platform Glassnode—underscoring “how top-heavy the market structure had become before the recent contraction,” the firm’s analysts noted.
“When most holders are at a loss, the biggest risk is a wave of panic selling,” Illia Otychenko, Lead Analyst at CEX.IO, told Decrypt. Investors looking to break even “may choose to exit if the price drops further,” he added, explaining that a “major liquidation zone” could drag the price down quickly.
Roughly $239 million worth of longs will be forced to close if Solana drops below $124.40, according to CoinGlass data.
Solana is down 0.3% over the past 24 hours and is currently trading at $129.24, according to CoinGecko data. On prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users place just a 4% chance on Solana achieving a new all-time high by the end of the year.
“We view every large-scale liquidation event as a cleansing of the market structure, as it sets the stage for the next phase of accumulation,” Lawrence Samantha, CEO of crypto asset management platform NOBI, told Decrypt.
Solana-focused treasury companies are adding headwinds, exacerbating the already grim situation, preventing a recovery, Otyechnko noted, suggesting their average mNAV is heavily underwater at around 0.6. A further slide lower could “potentially pressurize them to sell assets to cover costs,” which would further “strengthen a bearish narrative and fuel more fear-driven decisions.”
The crypto market outlook
Despite the sustained multi-week downtrend, the weekend bounce has improved the crypto market outlook. The upcoming macro events, including the end of quantitative tightening and the Fed’s interest rate decision slated for December 10, could be pivotal and trigger market volatility, potentially leading to a recovery, especially if the macro outlook resolves without hawkish comments.
“The current price is not a disaster warranting panic,” Samantha explained. “Always look at the institutional accumulation into Solana exchange-traded funds instead of the daily price action. It’s always a sign of long-term value.”
Since their introduction roughly a month ago, not a single netflow for the spot Solana ETF has turned negative, according to SoSoValue data. These funds have attracted roughly $719 million in netflow, according to SoSoValue data.
“We are not selling; we are positioning,” the NOBI analyst explained, suggesting that the only legitimate reason to cut losses would be if there were a fundamental point of failure, which we do not foresee.”
When asked whether crypto or Bitcoin has bottomed, the NOBI analyst said that while “it is not the bottom, conditions are in place for it to warm up.” “To suggest that a bottom is forming, the outlook might get worse is an understatement; as for the market to reset and launch the next cycle.”
If broader market conditions stay weak or another wave of liquidations hits, the price could drop further. A real bottom usually comes when volatility cools down, leverage resets, and long-term buyers begin quietly accumulating again.
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