In brief
- If other indices also exclude Strategy, outflows could soar another $8.8 billion.
- Strategy’s stock price has plunged more than 40% over the past month as Bitcoin’s price has fallen.
- The company’s premium to its BTC holdings has also plummeted.
Outflows from Strategy (MSTR) could total $2.8 billion if global finance company MSCI excludes the Bitcoin treasury giant from its equity indices, and reach $11.6 billion if other exchanges follow suit, JPMorgan wrote in a Thursday note.
A recent drop in MSTR’s share price–adding to this year’s declines–has stemmed more from concerns about the company’s potential removal from MSCI lists, where it is currently included, as well as on the Nasdaq 100, Russell 1000, and other indices, than Bitcoin’s price slump, analysts from the investment banking giant wrote.
“This index inclusion has enabled Bitcoin exposure to indirectly encroach into both retail and institutional investor portfolios,” the analysts wrote. “However, with MSCI now considering removing MicroStrategy and other digital asset treasury companies from its equity indices, this previous indirect encroachment could go into reverse.”
MSCI is currently weighing a proposal to exclude companies whose primary business is accumulating Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, with those assets accounting for at least 50% of their holdings.
The organization said in an announcement last month that the “consultation” extends through the end of the year, with a decision due by January 15.
Tysons Corner, Virginia-based Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has faced increasing headwinds as Bitcoin’s price has fallen sharply.
The company’s $51 billion market value reflects a 0.90 premium against its roughly $56 billion Bitcoin stockpile, according to data compiled by SaylorTracker. The premium, often referred to as mNAV (multiple-to-net asset value), is down from 2.7 a year ago.
Last week, the company’s Executive Chair, Michael Saylor, pushed back on rumors that the firm was liquidating parts of its namesake stockpile.
Strategy was down 5.1% on Thursday to $177.13, according to Yahoo Finance data. Its share price has plunged more than 40% over the past month as Bitcoin’s price has fallen.
JPMorgan analysts noted that index-focused funds own a substantial portion of Strategy shares.
“While active managers are not obligated to follow index changes, exclusion from major indices would certainly be viewed negatively by market participants, raising concerns about the cost and the ability of Microstrategy to raise equity and debt in the future,” they wrote. “With less index-related trading, the company may also see lower trading volumes and liquidity, making it even less attractive to large investors.”
Bitcoin has shed 3.4% from Wednesday to around $87,100, and more than 22% over the past month. The largest crypto has also dropped into the red since the start of 2025, after hitting a record high at the beginning of October.
Analysts say the drop is due to macroeconomic angst, including this week’s concerns about the jobs data and the decreasing likelihood of an interest rate cut that would bolster digital asset markets’ liquidity needs.
In a Myriad prediction market, users forecast just a 20% chance that Bitcoin will hit $115,000 in its next move, rather than falling to $85,000–a sharp reversal of trendlines from just a week ago that reflects investors’ sour mood.
Myriad is a unit of Dastan, the parent company of Decrypt.
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